Index IPCC Mandate Other Opinions Opinion of National Science Academies Conclusion References

  IPCC Mandate

“The IPCC does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Its role is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the latest scientific, technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change, its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation. IPCC reports should be neutral with respect to policy, although they need to deal objectively with policy relevant scientific, technical and socio economic factors. They should be of high scientific and technical standards, and aim to reflect a range of views, expertise and wide geographical coverage” (1)

  Much of the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been done by researchers at universities. The rules are that the chapters of its reports may present only previously published research, based on peer-reviewed scientific papers. Of course, not every paper published in the scientific literature is guaranteed to be correct in every detail, but the practise of sending manuscripts out to rival scientists for review makes sure that most of them are at least plausible. If a scientist disagrees with a paper that has already been published, he or she is free to write another paper attempting to disprove the first. The nature of science is that when an idea is challenged with contradictory evidence, you go back and take a look at your data and perhaps change your hypothesis, or come up with a reason for the contradiction. Indeed, if someone comes up with compelling evidence and theory that contradicts the current thinking, it will be listened to.

Once an IPCC chapter is drafted, the chapter is subject to another round of reviews by scientific experts. The chapters are grouped together into books, which also come with technical summaries and summaries for policy makers. These chapters are subject to line-by-line review, voting, and approval by the entire IPCC – this process of international and governmental consensus finding has often seen the organisation err on conservative conclusions. Nevertheless, the conclusions of this enormous scientific effort are that we face a substantial threat to the very viability of our environment and civilisation, in its current form. They include: (2)

• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level.
• Many natural systems, on all continents and in some oceans, are being affected by regional climate changes. Observed changes in many physical and biological systems are consistent with warming. As a result of the uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 since 1750, the acidity of the surface ocean has increased.
• Continued GHG emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.
• For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected

  Other Opinions

Additional conclusions from scientists are that:

• The atmospheric CO 2 concentration has risen strongly since about 1850, from 280 ppm (a value typical for warm periods during at least the last 400,000 years) to present 380ppm;
• The rise has been associated with the burning of fossil fuels, with a smaller contribution from deforestation;
• The changing CO 2 concentration has affected the radiative balance on earth, leading to an increase in near surface temperature;
• In the 20 th Century, the global climate warmed by approx 0.6 Deg C. Temperatures in the last 10 years have been the highest since instrumental records started (in the 19 th Century), and for at least several centuries before that;
• The rising global temperatures match scientific predictions very well;
• Most of this global warming is due to the rising concentration of CO 2 (as well as other anthropogenic gases); a smaller part is due to natural causes, such as fluctuations in solar activity.

The above findings are based on decades of research and thousands of studies (1) . The extraordinary consensus is seen in the statements of most international and professional bodies, which have extensively and critically assessed the scientific evidence. All these bodies have arrived at the same conclusions. However, anyone relying on the media might get a different impression, namely that the conclusions of the scientific community are still disputed, or regularly called into question. This is just not so, so when we debate, we should be aware of where the enormous weight of evidence lies.

  Opinion of National Science Academies

A joint statement issued (4) by the national science academies of Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Caribbean, China, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Italy, Malaysia, New Zealand, Sweden, and UK says “ The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) represents the consensus of the international scientific community on climate change science. We recognise IPCC as the world's most reliable source of info rmation on climate change and its causes, and we endorse its method of achieving this consensus. ” “ The balance of the scientific evidence demands effective steps now to avert damaging changes to the earth's climate” The National Academy of Science which was commissioned by the Bush administration to assess the current understanding of global climate change has also joined in this consensus. Its report, published in June 2001, stated: “ The IPCC's conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issue.”

  Conclusion

The IPCC's findings, because they reflect global scientific consensus and are apolitical in character, form a useful counterbalance to the often highly charged political debate over what to do about climate change. IPCC reports are frequently used as the basis for decisions made under the Convention, and they played a major role in the negotiations leading to the Kyoto Protocol .

  References

1.  About the IPCC “Mandate” http://www.ipcc.ch/about/index.htm
2. The entire Synthesis report from the International Panel for Climate Change
    (IPCC) can be seen on http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf
3. “Understanding the Forecast” by David Archer
4.  http://royalsociety.org/displaypagedoc.asp?id=20742